Since the early days of our nation we witnessed a two-party system battle for government power. Over time the names of the parties have changed, the ideologies have swapped, but as a nation we have consistently seen two-party control our government.
Today I veer from my typical cited articles and writing of current events to peer into my crystal ball. Today I make a prediction all my own. We, today, are witnessing the death of the American two-party dominance. Done are the days of Democrat vs republican.
Our American government, when compared to other areas of the world, still lives in relative infancy. European nations, organized for centuries longer, find four, five, ten, organized political parties the norm. Here however, we stabilized for our first 200+ years on two sides holding ideological and political dominance. I see over the last two years that dominance ending.
That then leads to question, where are we going from here? I take my shot at prediction now. I see a possible five-party country emerging.
- The far / alt-right – This party consists of the 20M or so people still supporting this administration. White supremacists, isolationists, hard-right evangelical “christians” make up this group. Their existence dominated by fear, hate, disdain of change. Examples of this ideology and group exist throughout all nations. While a small minority of the total population, this group votes with militant persistence. As such their minority voice has a majority power play in action. They’ve tasted power and they see no reason to sulk back to the shadows. Election 2016 empowered their hate.
- Libertarian – Anarchy-lite, anti-government, anti-regulation, “leave me alone”, these are the motives of the Libertarian. This group today often overlaps with the far right socially, but exist in a world bound by logic and reasoning as opposed to fear and hate. This causes a natural split with that far right and we see it widening now. There are those of Libertarian ideology in power now, and I suspect we shall soon see a true, open, Libertarian candidate take a major election. While I disagree with this party end to end, their existence is logical, and their ideology is one you can see makes sense, even while totally disagreeing.
- Centrist republican – Yesterday and today’s mainstream republican party, desperate to hold on to one last moment of dominance is what you find here. The classical conservative who has lost their way but sees the need to reject the their hard right counterparts.
- Centrist Democrat – Yesterday and today’s mainstream Democrat party, the mirror to the centrist republican, finding themselves in the same place as their counterpart. This group wishes to maintain their grasp of power while facing the challenges of the fifth major party.
- Progressives – Many Gen Z, Millennials, Gen X, and smatterings of others, breaking from the mainstream Democrats, countering the force of the far right and Libertarians. The Bernie Sanders vs Hillary Clinton battle highlighted the progressives are here, they are gaining motivation and coordination, and based on a majority of polls, may be the largest ideological group in the nation. Today’s Green party and Reform party could join with this group as objectives among them share significant overlap.
This could easily be a three-party grouping.
The alt-right and Libertarians see usefulness in combining their voting powers, Libertarians willing to overlook the hatred of the alt-right for political gain.
The centrist parties, desperate to hold power, could temporarily mend fences until the old guard retires from politics.
Progressives, passionate at heart, disorganized by nature, may fragment thereby reducing ability to sway elections and legislation.
This could just as easily fragment drastically more. Alt-right, libertarians, conservative republicans, centrists, democrats, progressives, reform, green, and other fringe groups on both sides may see this as a time to press forward.
I chose not to make predictions as they typically are laughably off-base. I likely have parties and pairing incorrect here. That said, I feel confident in stating the move to a multiparty government, away from two-party power, maturing as European nations have, is inevitable.
Other predictions on this for your reading: